We could be understating the ‘Kent’ Covid strain

‘Our estimate which is that the risk of death increases by 30 per cent is itself uncertain. We think it could be anywhere between 10 per cent and 50 per cent according to our analyses,’ said Dr Nick Davies, the author of one of the studies referenced in Friday’s Downing Street press conference, during an interview on Radio 4.

Between listening to the press conference last night and Dr Nick Davies, you could be forgiven for thinking that this latest development is all rather tentative and possibly merely a quirk of statistics that is – as yet – no cause for alarm. The controversial way the figures were presented; briefed to The Sun first, then announced at a press conference with the actual study released only later – may give the impression of a government spin operation design.

This, however, might be wishful thinking. There is plenty of doubt, to be sure, but it’s also possible that we have just heard an understatement of what could potentially be a dreadful situation.