We already know what the political event of 2007 will be, so let’s move on

It is clear from the Prime Minister’s new year message (issued somewhat surreally from the Florida home of the Bee Gee Robin Gibb) that he has already entered elder statesman mode. His theme was that Mr Brown must continue along the path which Mr Blair claims to have set: ‘[Labour] is dominating the battle of ideas. It will continue to do so provided it continues to be New Labour. This isn’t just about policy, though it is certainly about taking the tough decisions that prepare Britain for the future. It is also about our instincts, our ability to keep the core coalition together.’

In other words, the Prime Minister was telling Mr Brown to be like him or face the electoral consequences. This is of a piece with his speech at last year’s Labour party conference, which was a warning that the party should not stop being bold and radical. As is the wont of elder statesmen, however, Mr Blair is misremembering his time in office; although, uniquely, the Prime Minister is managing to misremember it while still in office. The bold, radical promise of 1997 has been squandered precisely because he has been neither bold nor radical.

It is traditional for commentators to look ahead at the beginning of every year to the next 12 months and to muse on how the year will be different from the one gone by. It is all nonsense. The passing of 12 solar months has no unifying thread. One might just as well pick any other random date from which to look ahead to the next 365 days. So I suggest that we forget about January through to April, ignore the notion of a 12-month cycle, and focus instead on the 24 months from May to the likely date of the next election in May 2009.