How much of a threat is Ukip to Labour? The tanks of the people’s army have been on the Conservatives’ lawn for some time but we now have an idea why Labour has been preparing to fight the kippers on the doorstep. Lord Ashcroft has carried out his final round of marginal seats polling this year, focusing on eight seats where the Conservative majority is between 7.1 and 8.1 per cent — plus another four seats where Ukip are threatening Labour.
The results aren’t too bad for the Conservatives: out of the seven seats polled on Labour’s target list, they are ahead in just two of them (Ealing Central & Acton and Stevenage). According to Ashcroft’s polls, the Tories are ahead in the next election in Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, Elmet & Rothwell, Harrow East, Pendle, and Warwick & Leamington while South Swindon is currently a tie:
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