Matthew Lynn Matthew Lynn

Von der Leyen is the real winner of the German elections

A weaker chancellor means a more powerful EU

(Getty)

The bald guy who leads the Social Democrats. The earnest looking Green lady. Or perhaps the guy in the charcoal-grey suit who leads the oddly named Free Democrats — free from what exactly? — who may end up picking the next chancellor. Lots of commentators will argue for a long time about who is the real winner of the German elections. But in fact there can be no real dispute about who has come out in a far stronger position. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

A power vacuum in Berlin will be filled by a hyper-active, ambitious Commission

There are two reasons for this. First, she is now by far the most powerful German politician. Whoever emerges as the new chancellor, he or she (although it will probably be a he, given the relatively disappointing performance of the Greens and their leader Annalena Baerbock) will hardly have a thumping mandate.

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