At the start of the pandemic, we talked a lot about herd (or community) immunity. But talking about the journey to herd immunity became toxic as it was variously linked to high infection rates, sacrificing the elderly, and the NHS becoming overwhelmed.
The debate on herd immunity was restarted last week by Professor Karl Friston, of University College London, who told the Daily Telegraph that the 73.4 per cent vaccinated reached on Monday meant that ‘based upon contact rates at the beginning of the pandemic and estimated transmission risk, this is nearly at the herd immunity threshold.’ This is an outlying view: other academics questioned this analysis. Matt Hancock said that the government will continue to watch the real-world data.
But some rough scenarios on herd immunity can be helpful as we try to understand the way forward as we roll out vaccines. They also explain why the Prime Minister is right to ignore his sceptics and to continue to push for mass testing, alongside vaccines.
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