This could be a turning point in the war

There is extraordinary news from Ukraine this weekend. An offensive in Kharkiv region, bordering Russia on the northwest, has stunned Russia – which had been moving troops south to defend against Ukraine’s Kherson offensive. Kharkiv region has been left only lightly defended by Russia: Moscow had assumed that Ukraine didn’t have the military strength to open a second offensive, to fight in the north as well as the south. Surprised by Ukraine’s attack, Russia’s weakened defences folded quickly and Ukraine has now liberated more ground in a few days than the Russians had taken since April. The strategically-important city of Izium is now freed from Russian control.

These are lots of unconfirmed reports and it’s still hard to work out exactly has gone on, but military commentators are already hailing this as a move ‘of historic importance‘ (Lawrence Freedman) and even ‘the greatest counteroffensive since World War two’ (John Spencer, of the Modern War Institute in Westpoint.)

Videos show the Russian army in full retreat in Kharkiv, cut off from their supply of weapons and personnel. One video shows a Russian tank retreating as fast as it can then running into a tree. Vitaly Gantchev, head of the Russian ‘military administration’ in the Kharkiv region, has called on residents to leave the oblast to save their lives. But there are reports that Russia-appointed authorities were the first to run.

Tanks, armoured personnel carriers, drones, helicopters, aircraft and artillery have in the last few days worked together and reclaimed more territory near Kharkiv than the Russians took in months of their Donbas offensive. This is a surprise because it had not been evident to anyone (least of all Russians) that Ukraine had assembled a force of such agility and potency. The picture above shows Ukrainian soldiers on a rooftop in Kupyansk yesterday; the below picture shows a hit against the Russian military in Kharkiv.

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Officials in Kyiv don’t rush to give announcements, but this is a war being recorded in real time, each stage shared on social media. Ukrainian soldiers keep posting photos and videos of their reception in liberated towns and villages. They are all over Telegram and other social media in Ukraine, which is how the story is being reported. Here are some of the most shared videos.

• Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers sing the national anthem, accompanied by a lone violinist, before starting the offence
• Locals in Balakliya, living under Russian occupation for months, are shown crying and hugging Ukrainian soldiers, and offering them food.
• Russian bases razed by Ukrainian missile attacks
• Ukrainian force down another Russian aircraft. The German Gepard anti-aircraft tank has helped take the total of downed aircraft to 243.
• The crew of a Russian BMP-3 tank film a video, only to be shelled by Ukrainian troops
• Russians abandon vehicles, ammunition and supplies. On social media, Ukrainians are joking that Russia will soon become Ukraine’s largest supplier of military vehicles.
• Ukrainian soldiers tear down Russian propaganda poster in liberated me” Balakliya and unexpectedly find a Taras Shevchenko poem “Battle on – and win your battle! God Himself will aid you”.

In a statement last night, Zelensky said that ‘at least 2,000 square kilometres of territories had been liberated’ since the start of the month – twice the territory it held on Thursday. This number keeps growing. ‘These days, the Russian army is showing its best side—its back,’ he said.

There have even been reports of Ukrainian Armed Forces approaching Donetsk Airport, which Russia occupied in 2015. It is not yet known whether this is true or not (my own contacts in Ukraine think it sounds a stretch) but one thing is clear: Russia is losing occupied territories much faster than invading the new ones. ‘We will be chasing these paedos all the way to Moscow’, says a Ukrainian soldier in this Facebook video.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence has not been quiet for the last few days, confirming that it was retreating from Izyum and Balakliya. It released a video of the convoy of equipment moving allegedly in the Kharkiv direction, presumably to show for the Russian audience that reinforcements were ‘on the way’. But the Russian Ministry of Defence later had to explain why it didn’t get there, saying that they had to ‘regroup Russian troops to increase efforts in the Donetsk direction’ in order ‘to achieve the goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas’. The Kherson counter-offensive is also going well with Ukrainian officials say that its army is advancing along the southern front and has moved another 20 kilometres south.

So Russia’s ever-thinning army is being torn between two fronts in Ukraine: in the north and the south of Ukraine. It is struggling to defending either and leaving behind the ammunition, weapons and equipment. But this is also coming at a cost to Ukraine: counteroffensive was always going to inflict heavy casualties. There are no casualty figures but Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, said that the Ukrainian troops are also suffering losses, that is why ‘the vast majority of Ukrainian men must be ready to fight’.

Reznikov also spoke about how western kit – superior to Russian in many respects – has transformed Ukraine’s chances, providing the tools. ‘We now we have special artillery systems – Himars and MLRS, which inflict exactly those targeted attacks. We have 155-caliber artillery, more than seven modern Nato systems, we have special MRLS shells. We have drone systems and anti-radar missiles, which we did not have before, with which we destroy and blind the enemy.’

Today is 11 September, the day when the Kremlin had planned referendums in the occupied territories for joining Russia. It’s possible that this day will instead go down in history as the turning point. ‘The war is not over,’ Mick Ryan, an Australian general, has observed. ‘But perhaps the tide is finally turning.’

Changed days from when the Ukrainian army was expected to be defeated in a matter of days. It wasn’t so long ago that Steve Blinken, the US State Secretary, was in Kyiv and there are reports in the Ukrainian press that he brought a Macron-style message from Biden about the need to start negotiations with Putin. Zelensky said he’s only negotiate once Russia has left all occupied territories.

For Ukrainians, the last few days prove to western allies that we are worth the investment: that with the right tools, Russia can be militarily repelled. It had only a veil of a defence in Kharkiv; its forces fold when they encounter serious resistance as they have worse kit and (now) negligible air cover. Kyiv can now claim to have done what Moscow has failed to do for six months: build momentum.

Many questions remain: mainly whether the Ukrainian military (which are still short of artillery and ammunition) can keep control over captured areas. But for today, safe to say there will be no referendum. And Ukrainians can hope that we have reached a turning point in our fightback against occupation.

Svitlana Morenets writes a weekly email, Ukraine in Focus, for The Spectator. Sign up for free here.