Ukraine’s Kherson offensive may have already been a success

The Ukrainian armed forces launched a long–awaited offensive on Kherson this week. However, the counter-offensive was signalled for so long by both Ukrainian and western sources that the Russian army had plenty of time to significantly reinforce its positions there, meaning that the Kherson front is now more heavily manned by Russian troops than most other stretches of the frontline.

Ukrainian government sources have requested a total blackout of media reports from the frontlines so exact details are sparse. But what is clear is that the Russian movement of forces has already had two positive effects for Ukraine, even before the actual counter-offensive operation was launched.

The first has been to further reduce the Russian army’s capacity to conduct large-scale offensive operations against Ukrainian positions in the Donbas by diverting already depleted and overstretched units, artillery and other things like electronic warfare equipment and air defences down south to defend Kherson.