Ukraine isn’t Boris’s ‘Falklands moment’

What should we make of Boris’s response to war in Ukraine? The verdict from one Tory MP is already in: ‘History will look back at this as his Falklands moment,’ said Jonathan Gullis, who represents Stoke-on-Trent. But if Conservatives are hoping that conflict will transport the PM from a beleaguered position into one of national dominance – as it did for Margaret Thatcher in 1982 – they are in for a nasty surprise.

It is certainly true that Thatcher’s position did improve after her quick victory in the Atlantic to such an extent contemporaries talked of a ‘Falklands factor’ to explain it. But it is less clear how far defeating Argentinian forces was the cause of it or just coincidental. Thatcher was in trouble largely because her radical policies appeared to be making Britain’s economic crisis worse rather than better. But improvements were already noticeable before war, and they continued afterwards. 

This is the very reverse of the situation Johnson now faces, especially given the imminent big rise in National Insurance and gas prices.