Despite a week of rather bruising media coverage, Ukip has moved into first place for next month’s European elections. For the second time this year, Nigel Farage’s party has overtaken Labour. According to poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times, just three points currently separate Labour and Ukip — still touching the margin of error:
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Although Labour and Ukip may continue to swap places over the next few weeks, today’s poll also suggests Ukip voters are more likely to turn out on polling day. When asked from 0 to 10 the likelihood of turning out on polling day, 48 per cent said they definitely would — 34 per cent turned out in 2009 — and eight per cent said stated there was no chance at all. Breaking this down by voting intention, 51 per cent of Labour voters said they will definitely turn out, compared to 68 per cent of Ukip voters.
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