Ukip on course for victory in Rochester – but no Tory panic

Counting is underway in the Rochester and Strood by-election and the early indications are that Ukip has won the seat on a turnout slightly over 50%. The result is expected between 3.30am and 4am, and my colleague Seb Payne will be tweeting updates throughout the night.

This was a campaign that started with the Tories saying they could win—and many saying that they had to win, but ends with the discussion all being about how big the Ukip majority will be. Here’s the rub, though: there’s no sign yet that defeat will send the Tories into a full-on panic. Even Cameron-sceptic MPs are saying that this by-election defeat is ‘priced in’.

The Tories are also confident that they have kept Reckless’ majority down to an amount that they can overturn in May—off the record, there are whispers that Reckless will be less than 10% ahead of the Tory candidate. While Emily Thornberry’s resignation has ensured that Labour will have its share of bad headlines in the coming days.