Ukip is still on track to pound the Tories into second place in the Rochester and Strood by-election, but not necessarily at next year’s general election, according to a new poll from Lord Ashcroft. The latest polling (see chart above) puts Tory defector Mark Reckless on 44 percent, the Conservatives on 32 percent, Labour on 17 percent and the Lib Dems on 2 percent.
Although Reckless looks set to win back the seat he once held as a Conservative next Thursday, this doesn’t mean the same will happen at the general election. According to Ashcroft’s poll, 36 percent of those who named a preference said they would vote Conservative in 2015 — up four points from the by-election snapshot — 35 percent for Ukip and 21 percent Labour. 72 percent of Ukip’s Rochester by-election voters said they would stay with them next year while 11 per cent said they would switch to the Tories.
A significant chunk of Rochester’s voters are on side with David Cameron too, with 27 percent stating they are satisfied with him as Prime Minister and another 35 percent would prefer to see him in No.10
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