James Forsyth James Forsyth

Ukip is here to stay – especially if Labour wins

We have entered an age of four-party politics

UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage arrives at Parliament on October 13, 2014 in London, England. New UKIP Member of Parliament Douglas Carswell has become the UKIP's first MP after stepping down as a Conservative and forcing a by-election in his constituency of Clacton-on-Sea - which he won with 21,113 votes - a majority of 12,404. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images) 
issue 18 October 2014

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[/audioplayer]British politics is rather like one of those playground games of football where one match is being played lengthways and another sideways. The two regularly get tangled up, making it very hard to work out what is happening. This dynamic in politics will continue all the way to polling day because an electoral system designed for a straight two-way contest is now having to accommodate a four-way fight.

First past the post coped reasonably well with three-party politics. When a coalition was needed in 2010, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats could put together a comfortable working majority in the House of Commons. But four-party politics promises to be far less clear-cut. One secretary of state predicts that the support of at least three parties will be needed to guarantee a working Commons majority for the next government.

The cause of this complication is Ukip.

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