Ukip is finished? I don’t think so

So, Ukip is finished. So says Matthew Parris in the Times this morning, as well as Marina Hyde in the Guardian – who takes Paul Nuttall’s declaration that he is ‘going nowhere’ in a slightly different way that he intended. The emerging narrative of Thursday’s by-elections is that Labour had an appalling night from which it will take years to recover, but that Ukip is finished for good. Even Farage has given up on his baby. As Matthew puts it: ‘Ukip’s driving spirits are concluding that the time approaches for the party to die’.

I have no capital invested in Ukip. I don’t care a great deal whether it dies or thrives. But I can see there is one thing wrong with the above narrative: it is not consistent with the figures. Yes, of course when you put your leader up in a by-election, the bookies briefly expect him to win and then he doesn’t it is going to be a disappointment.