Heywood and Middleton is a far worse result for Labour than for the Tories: we can agree on that, surely. Clacton is grim for Dave, of course, but I’m interested in what happens in the rotten Labour heartlands. Here’s something else for Ed Miliband to worry about: the SNP. Loathsome party, humiliated last month, but so angry and looking for revenge. The turnout in Scotland come the general election will surely be higher than usual. And much of it will be made up of occasional voters energised by the referendum.
The SNP won’t take safe Labour seats: they’re hugely behind – we’re talking 20-point margins. But the electorate has changed. Peter Kellner reckons the Nats could capture 26 seats, which is fanciful. But supposing they take half that, some of them from Lib Dems? Labour has lost its connection with its homeland in the north of England, but that’s nothing compared to its decrepit state in Scotland.
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