The European election creeps closer and the smart money has switched from Labour to Ukip topping the poll. A Labour win would be spectacular in its own right as it would probably require a doubling of their 2009 vote share. I confess there was an intake of breath in the ComRes office when our ITV News poll results were in showing an 11-point Ukip lead over Labour. But the naysayers were confounded by a second poll released on the same day showing a nine-point Ukip lead.
The ramifications of a party with no Westminster MPs topping a popular ballot within a year of a General Election puts us into new territory. What everyone, including Ukip themselves, are trying to assess is how that support will translate into an election where voters are being asked to send an MP to Westminster and a Prime Minister into Downing Street.
If 2009 teaches us anything, it shows that European elections give little indication of what might happen a year on.
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