Two years on: six of the worst Brexit predictions

It’s just over two years since the UK voted to leave the European Union in what proved to be a shock result that caught both politicians and commentators off guard. Unlike Lord Ashdown’s hat-eating, or Matthew Goodwin’s book eating after the two most recent General Elections, many didn’t get held accountable to their off the mark Brexit predictions.

Happily, Mr S is on hand to correct that. Steerpike has compiled a list of some of the Brexit predictions that failed to come true:

1. JP Morgan: Scotland will leave the UK and get a new currency

Days after the EU referendum, investment company JP Morgan announced in an email to clients that they expected Scotland to leave the union and change currency. (As did Andrew Marr in the immediate aftermath of the vote.) Eagle-eyed readers may have noticed that Scotland is neither independent and nor using a currency other than the pound. In fact, since the EU referendum, 40 polls have shown support for the union, whilst only four have come out in favour of independence. Sturgeon’s IndyRef2 gamble backfired – and she lost several seats in last year’s general election as Scots expressed recoiled from her plan. In JP Morgan’s defence, they said it would have to happen before 2019 – though it’ll have to be a hectic few months…

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2. Arron Banks: New UKIP to become official opposition

Ukip mega-donor and self described ‘bad boy of Brexit’ Arron Banks is far from a shy man, as shown by his comments to the Guardian a week after the referendum:

‘I think we have a good shot at taking over from Labour as the opposition because Labour are imploding and Labour voters for the first time ever have defied their party, voting for leave,’

Perhaps Banks was trying to speak something into existence when he predicted a new, pro-Brexit party would overtake Labour as the opposition party of the UK, amongst other claims.