Two things to bear in mind tomorrow

If, as expected, Alistair Darling reduces his borrowing forecasts tomorrow, it’s worth keeping two particular points in mind:

1) This government has always tended to underestimate its borrowing levels.  Ok, so you might argue that the government couldn’t have foreseen that public sector net borrowing would rise to £178 billion in 2009/10 when it predicted £38 billion in Budget 2008.  A recession has bitten, banks have collapsed, since then – that kind of thing.  But Brown & Co. certainly have a track record when it comes to underestimating borrowing totals.  In Budget 1999, they thought that borrowing would be at £3 billion in 2002-03 – it turned out to be £23 billion.  In Budget 2003, they thought that borrowing would be at £22 billion in 2006-7 – it turned out to be £33 billion.  And so on and so on.  Throw in Brown’s various off-balance sheet ruses, and the future borrowing position is likely to be considerably worse than Darling’s forecasts tomorrow.