On Sunday, thousands of Syrians poured out onto the streets of Istanbul to celebrate the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The 3 million refugees living in Turkey were as surprised as anyone by the spectacular collapse of the regime. The celebrators were euphoric, waving flags and shooting fireworks. For years, many of them lived in fear, feeling a need to hide their Syrian identity, only whispering Arabic on public transport. Yesterday, they proudly chanted in their mother tongue: ‘Death to Assad’.
‘I have never been this happy,’ said Omar Faruk Altavel, a young Syrian who fled Damascus nine years ago. ‘We will return now, rebuild the country, open our factories. It might take 30 years but it will start today.’
In my years of covering Turkey, convincing Syrian refugees to give interviews, even anonymously, was always a struggle. At the rally, people lined up impatiently to share their plans and excitement, asking me to take their photos. The gist was the same for all:‘Our country has been liberated, we can finally go home.’
The rebel takeover was spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the official branch of al-Qaeda and an ally of Isis. In recent years, however, they cut ties with both and significantly tempered their rhetoric. The group also proved surprisingly efficient at filling in the roles of the state and providing basic necessities in the newly conquered areas.
‘My mother in Aleppo only had electricity for a few hours a day. Since HTS took over, it has been 24/7,’ said Muhammad Ashkar, a Syrian studying psychology in Istanbul. ‘They haven’t harassed the Christians or others either.’
‘There are two narratives Jolani [the leader of HTS] has been using,’ explained Dr Rahaf Aldoughli, a lecturer at Lancaster University. ‘One that is for the West, and one that internally manipulates and strengthens his authority.’ She maintains that it is too early to say with certainty whether the moderation shift will hold, or was just a publicity stunt.
Outside Syria, Turkey may benefit the most from the takeover. After years of failed efforts to normalise relations with Assad, President Erdogan let loose the Turkish-backed HTS and the Turkish-controlled Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels. The new government in Damascus will certainly have good ties with Ankara. In Aleppo, the most commonly used currency is the Turkish lira.
The presence of more than 3 million Syrians in Turkey is a burning issue for the government. Most Turks make no secret about their desire to see them return. It cost President Erdogan a lot of votes and resulted in occasional public unrest, with angry Turkish mobs attacking Syrian homes and businesses.
This year, the state sharply increased the deportation of Syrians – now around 10,000 a month. The smallest offence or irregularity, like a speeding ticket or forgetting to update one’s address, is enough grounds to be transferred to a deportation centre.
‘They arrested me for being in a different province than I was registered,’ said Ali. ‘At the deportation centre, they forced me to sign a document stating that I am voluntarily returning to Syria. Anyone who refused was beaten and tortured until they signed.’ He was deported to Idlib, which was still under heavy bombardment at the time.
As the rebels were making rapid gains, the Turkish Interior Ministry announced even stricter rules for refugees. The message was clear: it is time to go. But the number of Syrians in the country could drop greatly and soon, even without deportations. Those who step out of the country lose their protected status and right to reenter in Turkey immediately.
‘Any Syrian who returns to their country will not want to return to Turkey,’ Muhammad Ashkar says with a laugh. ‘We don’t even fear deportation because now we want to return. Especially after this many years of facing racism.’
The war, however, is not over
Optimism dominates among Syrians in Turkey regarding the future of their homeland, even among those who actively dislike Islamist factions like the HTS or the Turkish-proxy SNA. The war, however, is not over.
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control around a third of the country, the region where most of the oilfields happen to be. The Turkish government and its proxies regard them as terrorists. President Erdogan has repeatedly stressed that Turkey will not tolerate an SDF-led Kurdish state as its neighbour. The SNA has already launched an assault on them, and fighting is ongoing in the north.
While many Syrians are planning their return, others could be displaced and pushed into exile. The fight for the Kurdish-held Northeast or failing to contain sectarian violence could easily trigger a new wave of refugees. ‘Yesterday in Damascus, we saw hundreds of families leaving because they were scared of retaliation,’ noted Rahaf Aldoughli.
The Syrians returning will also find a very different country than the one they left. ‘I know our house was destroyed,’ said Halit from Aleppo. ‘But in two months, I’ll return and we’ll rebuild it. My only woe is that Assad got away. Good willing, we’ll catch and execute him too.’
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