Donald Trump has not lost his capacity to surprise: few would have bet on him starting his address to Congress with praise for Black History Month. Tuesday night’s speech was the nearest Trump has come to acting like a traditional president. But one thing conspicuous by its absence was any mention of Russia. To Europeans, his Russia policy remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Four things make Trump’s approach to Moscow particularly hard to fathom. First is the fact that no one is sure who really speaks for him on foreign policy. What should Europe make of vice-president Mike Pence’s soothing words at the recent Munich Security Conference? Or regular efforts at reassurance by James Mattis, his defense secretary, and Rex Tillerson, his secretary of state?
James Forsyth and Freddy Gray ask whether Trump is going cold on Russia:
Then there’s the Russian state inserting itself into the US election process. People wonder, understandably, why the Kremlin would have bothered doing this if it didn’t feel it had something to gain. (It does seem that it was motivated as much by dislike for Hillary Clinton as anything else.) And the lurid rumours about Trump’s personal links with Russia further muddy the waters. The claims include everything from the idea that his property empire was helped through the financial crisis by ‘grey money’ from oligarchs to the allegation that the authorities there have compromising material showing him involved in a bizarre act with hookers in a Moscow hotel.
What is certainly true is that some of Trump’s inner circle have an alarmingly rosy view of Vladimir Putin. There is a worrying amount of admiration for him as a strong leader who stands up for his country’s interests. This is mixed with a sense that Russia is entitled to a near-abroad — that its post-Cold War status must be handled with care to avoid a repeat of Germany and Versailles.
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