Andrew Lilico

Trump doesn’t understand how trade deficits work

After Donald Trump’s Liberation Day, the US now imposes far and away the highest tariffs of any developed country in the world.

In the process of doing so Trump has completely rejected the cornerstone of the World Trade Organisation: the ‘most favoured nation’ principle whereby tariffs have to be the same on all countries you don’t have an explicit trade agreement with.

He has also cast aside the US’s system of free trade agreements – for example, imposing tariffs on Australia despite there being a decades-old Australia-US agreement removing tariffs.

His reasons for doing this reflect his dissatisfaction with the way the international financial order has worked for many years. He thinks that various foreign countries have manipulated their currencies to keep them unnaturally cheap against the dollar, resulting in the US running a high trade deficit and losing jobs in industries sensitive to currency strength (particularly the blue-collar jobs in manufacturing held by his natural voter base) to countries such as Mexico, China and Vietnam.

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