Treasury reveals it didn’t forecast economic impact of second lockdown

Lockdowns are designed to temporarily delay the spread of the virus – but at what cost? This was the line of questioning that kicked off yesterday’s evidence session for the Treasury Select Committee, scrutinising the work HM Treasury has conducted in relation to lockdown. Chair of the committee Mel Stride asked Clare Lombardelli, Chief Economic Adviser to the Treasury, to comment on specific economic analyses conducted around lockdown restrictions, ranging from the closure of pubs, gyms and restaurants to ‘circuit breakers’ and working from home directives. It was quickly revealed that no analysis has been done.

Stride’s interest stemmed from Sage meeting minutes dated 21 September, which referenced a ‘package of measures’ that the committee said ‘need to be adopted to reverse [the] exponential rise in cases.’ These included some of the more radical measures implemented during the first lockdown, including changes to ‘working from home’ rules, banning contact between households, the closure of hospitality and leisure sectors, and even the return of a (shorter) lockdown.