David Cameron was trying to work out how on earth to deal with the latest Europe row in his party. He heard them demanding legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, and this evening, after nearly a year of letter-writing and speeches, he announced that the Tory party will publish a draft bill doing just that. They still can’t get it through Parliament through the government channels, so they’ll be putting it up for any willing backbencher (of which there are many) to adopt in the Private Member’s Bill ballot.
Figures close to the Prime Minister were hinting to Tory MPs this evening there would be a move for legislation, but they were taken by surprise when, just a few hours later, the announcement was made that the draft bill will be published tomorrow.
So is this it? Is the Conservative party falling on its knees with gratitude? Unsurprisingly, MPs are not doing anything of the sort. I’ve spoken to John Baron who has been leading the charge from the backbenches. He now thinks that this is a sign that the whole Tory party should support his amendment to the Queen’s Speech on Wednesday. He says:
‘The leadership should have initiative and courage and support our amendment on Wednesday, which would force Labour and the Lib Dems to decide where they stand, and it would give them a mandate to introduce the legislation through the normal channels.’
The Lib Dems I’ve spoken to this evening strongly dispute that this would offer any sort of mandate for a government bill. One says:
‘Call me cynical, but I think parliament might have better things to do than have a paving bill for a referendum based on a general election result we have not had, following a negotiation that has not started.’
There are two big problems with this. The first is that the PM now appears well and truly behind his party. He has resisted introducing draft legislation, and didn’t mention it in negotiations about the Queen’s Speech. And now, less than 48 hours before a vote on a motion that doesn’t make any difference, he publishes a bill. The message is panic, not planning here, especially as it seems the draft bill has been circulating within the upper echelons of the party for some time. And the leadership failed to consult Baron and Co on the idea, meaning they’ve developed their own response, which is to demand more.
The second is that this just reinforces the impression that backbenchers are psychic. Why give up on a pet quest when you’re just campaigning for something the leadership will eventually give in to? This has happened time and time again: the backbencher who recently joked to Coffee House that they just vote ‘two or three weeks ahead’ of their party rather than really rebelling was right. There are technically just under 24 months left of the Coalition: this won’t be the last psychic demand Tory MPs make. Conversely, why on earth should any Tory bother being loyal or trying to peddle the party line any more? It could change at any minute.
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