Labour might be mired in misery this week, but at least it can take comfort that around the corner is the Rochester by-election, which the Conservatives look set to lose. Not one MP returning from campaigning against their former colleague Mark Reckless honestly thinks they’ll win, even if they tweet nice things and post aggressive videos.
Let’s just remind ourselves of why losing this constituency is particularly painful for the Conservatives. They spent their conference calling Reckless a ‘dickhead‘ and saying they thought they could win the by-election because he was a liar, and he didn’t have the same personal appeal as Douglas Carswell in a constituency considered far less Ukip-friendly. MPs attended a parliamentary party meeting when they returned to Westminster where they were told that Rochester and Strood voters were ‘more thoughtful’ than those in Clacton and therefore more likely to dismiss Ukip.
But now the party is realising that even ‘thoughtful’ voters fancy backing Nigel Farage’s party, even if it is just for a by-election and not in a general election, that even apparently unfriendly seats can become friendly and that all the defiance in the world doesn’t necessarily guarantee a victory against a treacherous colleague.
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