Normally, the Saturday before an autumn statement would be dominated by speculation about what is in it. But, as I say in The Sun today, both Number 10 and the Treasury are emphasising that while there’ll be important things on productivity, infrastructure and fiscal rules in Wednesday’s statement, there’ll be no rabbits out of hats.
Partly, this is because of Philip Hammond’s personality: he’s not a political showman. But it is also because he’s not got much room for manoeuvre. As he has emphasised to Cabinet colleagues, the growth forecasts might not be dramatically lower than they were in March, but cumulatively they have a big effect—limiting what the government can spend. He also warned them that the debt to GDP ratio might be forecast to be ninety percent plus, the level at which markets start to get worried.
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