Tories six points ahead in new Guardian/ICM poll — but Ashcroft has the main parties tied

The Guardian declared last Friday was ‘the day the polls turned’ — but they have turned again, it seems. ICM has released a new poll today, which puts the Conservatives six points ahead. This pushes the Tories way past the margin of error to 39 per cent, while are Labour on 33 and the Liberal Democrats jump back into third place at eight per cent. Ukip and the Greens are both tied on seven per cent. It’s an extraordinary number that, if it was repeated across the country — particularly given the rise of the SNP in Scotland — it would put the Conservatives into majority territory for the first time.

This result chimes with the latest Opinium survey for The Observer, which also puts the Tories ahead — albeit by two points ahead on 36 per cent. But YouGov’s most recent poll for the Sun has Labour on a three-point lead. Why such a difference? The simple answer is that you get rogue polls now and again, and ICM seem to have produced one.