For almost a decade now, what social conservatives say and the evidence in front of our eyes has been diverging with remarkable speed.
According to the received wisdom, the permissive revolution of the 1960s led to family breakdown, which in turn led to today’s terrifying crime rates. The small snag with the argument is that crime rates are not terrifying. The decline in marriage and rise in divorce notwithstanding, crime rates have collapsed.
Social conservatives can take some comfort from the fact that the fall coincides with the increase in the prison population since 1990. But a rise of about 30,000 in the number behind bars is small beer when set against, the vast and vastly welcome fall in crime.
The murder rate has seen the most startling decline of all. It has all but halved from 1,047 in 2002-03 (when the 172 victims of Dr Harold Shipman were included in the figures) to to 550 homicides in 2011-12 — the lowest level since 1983.
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