Tories must avoid complacency over Corbyn

Statistically, a Tory victory at the next election is unlikely. British voters tend not to grant a fourth term to governments: it has happened only once in our post-war history. That was under John Major in 1992 in an election in which the government lost 40 seats. But this time, the Tories would go into a general election as a minority government. If this were not handicap enough, they’ll also have to fight the election having spent years dealing with Europe, the subject that splits the party most deeply. Yet, remarkably, the Tories are still in with a chance of winning a fourth term. They have one man to thank for this: Jeremy Corbyn.

If Labour were led by a more conventional figure, politics would be very different. Another opposition leader would be able to tempt more Tories to rebel in pursuit of a soft Brexit. But Corbyn’s left-wing economics, dubious associations and personal Euroscepticism mean that even the most Europhile Tories aren’t inclined to align themselves with him.