Last night’s by-election results were bad for both the main Westminster parties. The Tories did not manage to make significant inroads into Douglas Carswell’s majority, and their vote collapsed in Heywood. Their main saving grace is that the Rochester by-election has united the party in fury and is a fight they think they can win. This means troublemakers will stay quiet for the time being. But the relative unity that is expected today will evaporate if they then fail to win a seat the party has briefed it is likely to win.
As for the message to voters, who can now see an MP representing and validating Ukip in the House of Commons, the Tories have decided to scare people. Grant Shapps told Sky News earlier that 'Ed Miliband is now a step closer to Downing Street' and that the Labour leader would be 'smiling' at the result in Clacton.
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