Ever since David Cameron declared he wanted to get net migration down to below 100,000 the migration figures have caused him a headache. Today’s are particularly sensitive given that they’re out just a day before the EU referendum purdah period starts.
Confirming net migration more than three times Cameron’s supposed maximum, and half of the rise being EU nationals, the data will help the Brexiteers argue that we need to leave the EU to restore border control. The potency of this argument has resulted in a subtle shift in the Brexit campaigning strategy, which appears to have placed immigration (not the NHS or the economy) at the centre of their argument.
The ONS release shows that net migration of 333,000 last year, a rise of some 20,000. As the ONS is itself at pains to point out, this is because emigration dropped (this underlines how daft it is to target net migration, rather than inflow: what government can stop people leaving?)
Recently, numbers have been used as ammo for the remain campaign. Treasury statistics, however they’ve been cooked up, have contributed to that. But today’s figures, which shows that net migration from the EU rose from 174,000 in 2014 to 184,000 last year, are only going to help those fighting for Brexit. Expect to see these numbers touted around a lot over the coming days and weeks as the EU referendum fight reaches its closing – and possibly even more vicious – stage.
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