To save the Union, negotiate Scotland’s independence

The first cabinet meeting of the new term and Boris Johnson’s summer holiday were both dominated by one concern: how to turn the tide on Scottish nationalism. Johnson’s foray into the Highlands was intended to demonstrate his own personal commitment to the Union; it also allowed him to find out for himself how awful mobile phone coverage is in much of rural Scotland. The cabinet on Tuesday discussed how to stop the Scottish National party turning the legislation that will underpin the UK’s post-Brexit internal market into their latest argument for independence.

The Prime Minister is confident about his chances of knocking back the Nationalists. The decision of the Scottish Tories to dump their unimpressive leader Jackson Carlaw and replace him with Douglas Ross shows there is life in the party there. Such ruthlessness might jolt Scottish Labour into action and get it to jettison its own failing leader, Richard Leonard. But even with these changes the Unionist parties will struggle to deny the SNP a majority at next year’s Holyrood elections. If Nicola Sturgeon wins, she will certainly claim a fresh mandate for a second independence referendum. Only this week, she published plans for a draft referendum bill.

Inside No. 10, the strategy is simple: just say no. They can’t lose a referendum that they don’t allow and there is no way a legal referendum can take place without Westminster’s consent. Yet while this kind of approach has held Spain together, it is not really a recipe for stability. Those in government who think about the question most deeply are becoming concerned about how sustainable that strategy is.

The worry is that Sturgeon will keep asking for a second referendum and each time Westminster says no, support for independence will go up by a point or two.