We have entered an equivocal and shiftless passage in British politics. Tony Blair is in the situation of a relegated football club towards the end of the season. He is going down, and there is a zero statistical chance that he can survive. He lingers at top table, but has reached the stage where even victories cannot save him.
David Cameron finds himself in exactly the opposite position. Formally, he is still a mere contender. But the issue is in practice decided. This means that Cameron no longer needs to use the two-and-a-half remaining weeks of campaigning to secure votes. The imperative need is rather to work out strategies for the moment he officially becomes Opposition leader on the afternoon of 6 December.
This is important because there are at present two versions of David Cameron in circulation, each equally plausible. There is the Cameron as portrayed in the newspaper columns of Matthew Parris and Lord Rees-Mogg, arguably the two leading Conservative commentators.
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