The gamble Boris feels he must take

Both Boris Johnson and Robert Jenrick have used their media appearances today to try and calm Tory MPs after yesterday’s announcement of the new Covid tiers. But the problem, as I say in the Times today, is that Tory MPs know these restrictions are unlikely to be eased anytime soon.

It would be surprising if the government decided to loosen things up before it has seen the effect Christmas relaxations will have on the case rate. We know that government advisers think that for every day of Christmas easing there will need to be five days of tighter restrictions. We can’t be sure yet if this analysis is correct. But it would be a surprise if places were moving down the tiers in January.

You might think that the Tory benches would be more prepared to live with these restrictions given we now know with some confidence how the crisis will end; the Oxford vaccine news means that restrictions should be lifted from the start of April as sufficient numbers should be immunised by then.