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What result at the next election would most suit Ukip? There is little doubt that the party would most benefit from a Labour victory in 2015, which I discussed in my Spectator column this week. In brief, Labour victory would mean:
1. No EU referendum and more EU immigration. Ed Miliband has taken a strong stance against an In/Out referendum despite pressure from inside his shadow Cabinet to agree to one. He is unlikely to change his mind on this if he became Prime Minister. Five more years without a referendum, would play into Ukip’s hands as would five more years of immigration from the EU. Indeed, the latter would undoubtedly help Ukip in its effort to breakthrough in Labour’s northern heartlands.
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