So what’s the deal with the opinion polls we’ve been seeing in the newspapers recently? There was some hubbub in Tory circles yesterday over the fact that two weekend polls – YouGov for the Sunday Times and ComRes for the Indy on Sunday – had Labour either gaining ground on the Tories or a maintaining boosted level of support around the 30 percent mark. What had happened to the 19 percent lead that the Tories enjoyed in the immediate aftermath of their conference? Had the Labour conference really been more successful than the Tory one, despite all appearances? I’ve heard these, and similar questions, doing the rounds over the past couple of days.
I rather suspect that there’s some volatility involved in all this. For starters, conference boosts tend to evaporate very quickly indeed – and while that may not explain why Labour’s rise has solidified somewhat, it probably accounts for the Tory half of the equation.
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