Thanks to the tremors along Westminster’s grapevine, we already knew that
today’s OECD Economic Outlook would make for pretty dreary reading. But now that the report is actually
out, we can see the organisation’s numbers for ourselves. The headline point appears to be that the eurozone is in, or is facing, ‘mild recession’. Or to put it in graphic form:
And the current situation isn’t look particularly encouraging for the UK either. The first heading in the section on us reads ‘The economy is weakening sharply’. And a subsequent pair
of graphs predicts, first, that we’ll experience a mild recession of our own across the next two quarters, and then that unemployment will keep on rising to a peak in 2013. Here’s the first:
And here’s the second:
Of course, this has implications for the public finances — which are strengthening, but more slowly than might have been expected. Government debt, on the OECD’s more rigorous definition, is
forecast to hit 100 per cent of GDP in 2013.
Peter Hoskin
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