This great commodity rally doesn’t mean that spring has arrived

All in all, this is an odd moment for an outburst of high spirits: not from me — I’m as phlegmatic as ever — but from commodity investors. The price of a barrel of oil has rallied from $27 to $40 after talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia about restricting supply; one pundit called that ‘meaningless theatre’ but others expect a climb back to $50. In a similar mood, copper prices have risen by almost a fifth — reflecting producer cutbacks combined with a belief that the Chinese downturn in demand might not be so severe as was first feared. Likewise iron ore, which surged so fast at the beginning of this week that one analyst called it ‘berserk’, while the biggest player in global steel, the Indian tycoon Lakshmi Mittal, declared that ‘things should continue to improve’. Shares in miners such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have rallied in parallel.