The European Union might have many flaws, but one of its great strengths is its ability to sense weakness. It is telling, then, that Michel Barnier didn’t mince his words on his trip to the Irish border this week as he made the case for a goods border in the Irish sea. This is something that Theresa May has said no British prime minister could ever accept, and it’s anathema to most of her cabinet colleagues, not to mention the Democratic Unionist party’s MPs on whom she relies for support. So why would Barnier return to this theme? Because even from Brussels, it’s clear what a bind Mrs May is in.
Not so long ago, she was hailed as the indestructible Maybot: the queen of all she surveyed. Now, she is so weakened that she is having not just to accommodate her antagonists but to promote them. Take the appointment of a new home secretary. She has clashed repeatedly with Sajid Javid over the years: he doesn’t share her views on immigration, or a host of other major issues. Amber Rudd might have disagreed with May on various things but felt she had to toe the line, that the price of admission was continuing May’s legacy at the Home Office. Now, ministers know that they don’t need to pay that price. In his first day in the job, Javid cheerily declared that he’ll be his own man.
May finds herself being pinned down not only by Barnier and Javid, but a host of others too. The House of Lords, Tory rebels, Brexiteer cabinet ministers and the DUP are all at it. The Tory Eurosceptics even published a 30-page dossier attacking her idea of a hybrid customs union. The Prime Minister’s challenge used to be deciding which way to move. Now, she will be wondering if she can move in any direction at all.
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