Theresa May (and I) are just back from Argentina. And she is about to enter the most important week of her political life and the most important week in this country’s political and constitutional history for decades.
It starts tomorrow with the publication of a summary of the legal advice on the PM’s Brexit plan – which will expose an irreconcilable contradiction at the heart of the so-called backstop to keep open the border on the island of Ireland.
On the one hand, if the UK were to trigger the backstop at the end of 2020, which would effectively take us into the EU’s customs union, the UK would never have the unilateral right to leave it. Our sovereign room for manoeuvre would be constrained in a fundamental way – which is precisely the opposite of what the Brexiters said Brexit would deliver.
On the other hand, it is unlawful – under the EU’s treaty – for this withdrawal provision negotiated under Article 50 to constitute the permanent economic relationship between the UK and EU.
So Theresa May argues that pragmatically the UK and EU have a common interest in terminating the backstop as fast as possible.
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