Here is the measure of today’s events in Parliament: probably the least important question is whether the PM names her own departure date when she sees a rowdy meeting of Tory MPs at 5pm under the umbrella of the 1922 Committee. This is not to trivialise whether or not she confirms she would stand down on May 22nd or shortly afterwards, subject to her Brexit deal being ratified later this week. If she conveys in any way when she’s going, and her colleagues have no idea whether or not she will, that’s huge.
But every Tory MP knows she is a short-dated Prime Minister. Whatever Theresa May says today, none of her MPs expect the leadership election that would select her successor to be held later than the summer.
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More important is whether up to 20 of her junior ministers feel they have to resign if they are whipped to stymie backbench MPs taking control of Monday’s parliamentary business (probably needed for MPs to whittle down popular alternative Brexit options to just one).
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