Theresa May's Brexit backstop breakthrough

I am hearing that the PM’s Brexit advisor Olly Robbins has made meaningful progress in talks with the EU’s negotiator Michel Barnier on that contentious “backstop”, or insurance policy to keep open the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland pending agreement on a permanent long-term trading relationship that achieves the same. Depending on who I talk with, there’s either been a breakthrough or things are moving in the right direction. My sense therefore is that it would be premature to crack open the champagne bottles, but maybe a half-bottle should be on ice.

The most important development would be that the EU seems close to agreeing that the backstop would apply to the whole UK and not just to Northern Ireland, as it originally demanded – or at least it would apply to the whole UK for customs. That would represent a big victory for the PM – although there is a nightmarish tinge for her, because her Brexiter colleagues see this backstop as a backdoor to keep the UK in the customs union forever and thus prohibited from doing trade deals with other countries.

Under pressure from May, via Robbins, Barnier is undertaking to find a way to convincingly present the backstop as temporary – even though he will never actually agree a legally binding end date to it.