Theresa May is safe, at least for now

This comes perilously close to making a prediction about politics, so I’ll probably regret it. Never mind. Here goes. There’s some talk at Westminster about a leadership challenge to Theresa May. Harry Cole of the Sun, who knows his stuff, reports that Graham Brady of the 1922 Committee, could be close to the critical total of 48 letters from MPs. Joe Murphy of the Evening Standard, a Lobby reporter with few, if any, peers, says he’s heard of two more letters going in this weekend. Joe also reports a Tory plotter saying that May’s local elections are the ‘maximum danger point’ for Mrs May.

And on that basis, I make the following observation: Mrs May is safe, for now. This is not, to be clear, to question those reports I summarise above: I believe them. In particular, I believe that rebels are naming the May elections as the key date.

And that’s why I think the Prime Minister is safe.