Theresa May’s victory in the 1922 committee confidence vote is one of those boxing matches that leaves both sides preparing for an early rematch—with the challengers somewhat more eager for one than the champion. The defeated Noes got 37 per cent of the vote, according to the numerate Tim Stanley, of an electorate that provided a 100 per cent turnout of Tory MPs. That’s seventeen votes short of a two-thirds majority for the Prime Minister compared to John Major’s achievement of getting four votes more than that traditionally decisive margin in 1995. Her critics got about the same percentage of the non-payroll vote. Given that this time Brexit was also at stake—which raises the stakes above the personal survival of either Prime Minister—a better comparison may be the vote against Neville Chamberlain in the 1940 Norway debate that by degrees led Churchill to power. On that occasion, the Chamberlain government won with 281 votes but 101 government supporters either voted against him (41) or abstained (60.)
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