Theresa May has just given a defiant speech outside Downing Street in which she promised to ‘contest’ the confidence vote with ‘everything’ that she’s got. On the news that 48 confidence letters had been received by 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady, the Prime Minister said the only people a Tory leadership contest would benefit right now are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell:
‘A change of leadership in the Conservative party now would put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. A new leader wouldn’t be in place by 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament. The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it. And a leadership election would not change the fundamentals of the negotiation, or the parliamentary arithmetic. Weeks spent tearing ourselves apart will only create more division just as we should be standing together to serve our country. None of that would be in the national interest. The only people whose interests would be served would be Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.’
May’s message was clear – she has no plans of stepping down, now and most likely not in six months time either. The Prime Minister sounded confident in her address even though she could be out of a job within 12 hours.
So, will it be enough to save her job? May’s allies are bullish this morning about her chances. They believe she will win this vote comfortably. But given that it is a secret ballot, it would be wise not to take every supportive message at face value. Now the vote is going ahead some MPs will wonder if they can risk another 12 months of this – as May would be immune from challenge for a whole year.
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