Vladimir Putin now knows that the West won’t fight for Ukraine. The past few weeks have shown that. All options are open to Moscow. Russian troops could march on Kiev or stay on the border destabilising Ukraine’s economy until its government gives way. If Putin wanted a fight, he would win — at least initially. No western military force will stop Russia from crossing the border.
The main question is what punishment the West would be able to inflict on Russia after an incursion. Would Nato members be able to agree on what approach to take? Tensions within the alliance have been exposed. Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, has complained to Congressional Democrats that Germany needs ‘constant coaxing’ on a sanctions-led response to Russian aggression.
Nato, set up to counter the Soviet Union at the start of the Cold War, is trying to deter Russia not through military force but through the threat of such sanctions.
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