The worries behind falling unemployment

Expect Labour to make much of today’s employment figures, which show that unemployment fell by 7,000 in the three months to last November.  Already, Yvette Cooper has claimed it as a success for “government investment”.  While Gordon Brown will surely repeat that message in PMQs.

But is it really testament to government action?  Or is it a result of a naturally improving economy (which, let’s not forget, is taking longer in the UK than most other developed nations)?  Well, a study commissioned by the Spectator from Oxford Economics found that Brown’s “investment” would “save” around 35,000 jobs in 2009 – but then destroy considerably more jobs from this year on.  Even though there’s been a Budget and a PBR between that study and now, it still gives the lie to Brown’s frequent claim that the government has saved hundreds-of-thousands of jobs.    

Besides, as Theresa May pointed out in a well-pitched