Whenever you make an optimistic prediction, you risk being wrong twice. First there is the risk that the prediction itself is wrong: 1,000 Concordes by 1973; flying cars; food in pill form. More often, though, it isn’t the prediction that’s wrong but the optimism that accompanies it.
The commonest failing of techno- optimists is to be right about future technologies but naively idealistic about the lasting enjoyment they will bring. In reality, yesterday’s novelty soon becomes today’s annoyance (email, for instance), while many innovations fall victim to habit, snobbery or prejudice. Yes, mobile technology theoretically allows us all to work from beach huts, but nothing has yet unseated the belief that people are most productive when having a slightly miserable time.
I was reminded of this by reading On Roads by Joe Moran (Profile Books, £14.99) — a wonderful new history of the development of the British road network.
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