The West shouldn’t underestimate Russia in Ukraine

Russia’s winter offensive appears to have begun with a decidedly underwhelming series of operations in the Donbas. So far results have ranged from grinding and very costly victories in the towns of Krasna Hora and Soledar, to an outright disaster at Vuhledar where most of Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was destroyed, and its commanding officer killed, after becoming stuck and then fixed by artillery fire in the middle of recently re-laid Ukrainian minefields.  

Meanwhile, a long-running operation by Wagner mercenary troops to take the partially encircled town of Bakhmut continues, and Russian forces are making probing attacks as far north as the Russian border near Kharkiv oblast and as far south as Zaporizhzhia oblast.  

For the moment Ukrainian defensive lines are broadly holding, and the limited Russian successes that continue to pile pressure on the almost encircled town of Bakhmut are coming at the cost of heavy casualties. It would be a mistake though for the West to underestimate Russia at this stage of the war.