The West has rediscovered its purpose

Over recent days I have been reflecting on War and Peace. Or Special Operation and Peace as it must now be known in Russia, unless you want to spend 15 years in prison. And I am reminded once again of how utterly unpredictable war always is. On this occasion almost every-thing that people imagined just a couple of weeks back has been completely inverted.

In no particular order the list includes the following. A few weeks ago Vladimir Putin looked like a strongman. Today he looks like a weak and deluded leader. A few weeks ago Volodymyr Zelensky looked like an ex-comedian who might soon be out of his depth, if not his country. Today he looks like a remarkable wartime leader and an actual strong man. A few weeks back the Russian military seemed vast and unassailable. Today it looks corrupted, inept and surprisingly vulnerable.

In February the EU was riven and dis-united. Today it has rarely been more unified. Last month people still pondered the three-decade-old question ‘Whither Nato?’ Today the purpose of the alliance has rarely looked more obvious. Countries like Sweden which thought the second world war a murky conflict in which it was impossible to pick sides have started arming the Ukrainians. And even Switzerland has banned dodgy Russian oligarchs from accessing the country’s historically moral and transparent banking system.

On it goes. Poland has been transformed from a European pariah into a humanitarian superpower. Most astounding of all, Nato countries which spent decades freeloading off US defence budgets have suddenly stepped up. Germany just doubled its defence budget almost overnight.

So aside from the tide of bloodshed in Ukraine and economic misery inside Russia, the most striking thing about this conflict is that it seems to have overturned every recently held presumption.