As the prospect of a Brexit deal drifts further away and a blame game ensues between Downing Street and Brussels, the UK is on course for a volatile general election. As James reveals on Coffee House, No. 10’s attention has moved to how to position the Conservatives in an election in during a Brexit extension. A senior Downing Street source tells him: ‘Those who pushed the Benn Act intended to sabotage a deal and they’ve probably succeeded. So the main effect of it will probably be to help us win an election by uniting the leave vote and then a no deal Brexit. History is full of such ironies and tragedies.’
When it comes to that election, two reports today have been published identifying the swing factors that could decide the result. The British Election Study has published a report declaring the current British electorate the most volatile in modern times – with the electoral shock of Brexit (along with the 2008 crash as well as immigration) having a big impact that has caused people to deviate from traditional voting lines.
The group of professors behind the report suggest that we could be heading for the most surprising election yet with Brexit likely leading to more big shifts.
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