The VAT argument bubbles along

Today has been one of predictable political sparring over the VAT increase. But, as one Tory MP said to me last night, the crucial question is how long people keep talking about it. If the public come to blame the VAT rise for every price rise they encounter—as Ed Miliband wants them to—then the coalition has a problem. But if the new VAT rise just becomes a fact of life then the coalition will pay a low political price for the rise. Indeed, if the VAT rise ends up helping provide money for an income tax cut later in the parliament then the coalition could actually benefit from it. (Note Osborne’s last answer to Evan Davis this morning.)

Alan Johnson, the shadow Chancellor, has not had a good day. His missteps gave the Tories, who were on the defensive following Ed Miliband’s strong showing yesterday, a chance to go on the attack.